Basic Theory
Definitions and Characterizations
Most characterizations of the exponential distribution (and its generalizations) in the classical setting are based on the equivalence of the time-shifted distribution with the original distribution, in some sense. In the semigroup setting (and particularly in the positive semigroup setting), there are natural generalizations of these concepts. Once again we start with measurable space and a measurable semigroup as discussed in Section 1. The relation associated with is given by if and only if . So if is a random variable in then the reliability function of for the semigroup , or equivalently the graph , is given by
We assume that is supported by so that for .
Suppose that is a random variable in with reliability function for .
- has an exponential distribution on if for and . Equivalently, the conditional distribution of given is the same as the distribution of .
- has a memoryless distribution on if for . Equivalently, the reliability function of given is the same as the reliability function of .
Details
The equivalences are clear. For ,
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-
As with the other terms from reliability that we have used, exponential distribution and memoryless distribution are used in an abstract sense. Recall that a positive measure on a measurable group is relatively invariant if for and where is measurable (see the book by Halmos). So an exponential distribution is simply a relatively invariant probability measure, but on a semigroup rather than a group.
If has an exponential distribution on then has a memoryless distribution on .
Details:
Let in part (a) of definition [1]. Then
Generalizing the relation , recall that the relation associated with is defined by if and only if , so that for some . In terms of the relations associated with , the exponential and memoryless properties have the form
Sepcializing further, if is a positive semigroup, so that the associated relation is a partial order , the exponential property and memoryless properties have the more familiar form
Here are alternative formulations of the exponential and memoryless properties:
Suppose again that is a random variable in .
- has an exponential distribution on if and only if the conditional distribution of given is the same as the distribution of for every .
- has a memoryless distribution on if and only if the conditional reliability function of given is the same as the reliability function of for every .
Details:
The proofs rely on basic algebraic properties of the semigroup.
- Recall that for , the mapping takes one-to-one and onto the measurable subsets of . Specifically, if then and . Conversely, if and then where . So let with and let . Then
and
So the conditional distributon of given is the same as the distribution of if and only if the conditional distribution of given is the same as the distribution of .
- Recall that for , the function takes one-to-one onto , with inverse function . Both functions are measurable. So let so that for unique . Let denote the reliability function of on . Then the conditional reliability function of given at is
The reliability function of at is
The two functions are the same if and only if for all .
As a simple corollary we can answer the question of when the random walk on semigroup associated with random variable is the same as the random walk on the graph associated with .
Suppose again that is a random variable in . The random walk on the semigroup associated with is the same as the random walk on the graph associated with if and only if has an exponential distribution.
Details:
Let be a discrete-time, homogeneous Markov process in . For both random walks, the distribution of is the same as the distribution of . For the random walk on the graph , the conditional distribution of given is the same as the distribution of given (that is, ). For the random walk on the semigroup , the conditional distribution of given is the same as the distribution of . Hence the two random walks are the same if and only if the conditional distribution of given is the same as the distribution of . By [3], this is the case if and only if has an exponential distribution.
Our next result gives expected value characterizations of the exponential property.
Suppose again that is a random variables in with reliability function for . The following are equivalent:
- has an exponential distribution on
- for and measurable .
- for and measurable .
Details:
The equivalence of (a) and (b) follows from definition [1]. The equivalence of (a) and (c) follows from proposition [3].
If has an exponential distribution on then (b) and (c) holds more generally for measurable , assuming that the expected values exist.
Exponential Points and Sets
The following two results deal with the set of points and the collection of sets satisfying the exponential property.
Suppose again that is a random variable in with reliability function for . Define
If then is a complete sub-semigroup of .
Details:
We first show closure. Suppose that and . Then
In particular, letting we have , so substituting back we have
and so . Next we show completeness. Suppose that and that so that for some . We need to show that . Let . First, since we have
On the other hand, since we have
Again since we have
Combining the displayed equations we have
Since we have , so .
In the case that is a positive semigroup, note that the identity element so is a complete positive sub-semigroup. Of course in general, may be empty, or in the case of a positive semigroup we could have . These cases aside, every distribution satisfies the exponential property on some complete sub-semigroup.
Suppose again that is a random variable in with reliability function for . Define
Then is closed under countable disjoint unions, proper differences, countable increasing unions, and countable decreasing intersections.
Details:
Recall that for , the mapping from into preserves all of the set operations. Let be a sequence of disjoint sets in and let . Then is a disjoint sequence and
Hence . Next let with and let . Then and . Hence
Hence . Of course and hence the other results follow.
From [7] it follows that is a -system and hence also a monotone class (in the standard terminology of measure theory). From the monotone class theorem, it follows that if is a collection of sets that generates the reference -algebra and then and hence has an exponential distribution. For the following related result, recall that the (right) -algebra associated with is the -algebra generated by the collection of right neighbor sets. That is, where .
Suppose that the collection of right neighbor sets is closed under intersection. If random variable in is memoryless, then is exponential relative to the associated -algebra .
Details:
Let denote the reliabiltiy function of . Since is memoryless,
It follows that for and hence . Since is closed under intersection, it is a -system, again in the standard terminology of measure theory. Since is a -system, a basic result in measure theory states that .
Here is the most important special case of [8].
Suppose that is a positive semigroup and that the assocated partial order is an upper semi-lattice. If random variable in is memoryless then is exponential relative to the associated -algebra .
Details:
Since is an upper semi-lattice, the collection of right neighbor sets is closed under intersetion: for . Hence the result follows from [8].
Of course, propositions [8] and [9] are most interesting when the assocated -algebra is the reference -algebra . In these cases, the memoryless property implies the full exponential property.
Continuity
Under mild conditions, the reliability function of an exponential distribution for a topological semigroup is continuous.
Suppose that is a topological semigroup with the property that for every there exists such that is an interior point of and has nonempty interior. If has an exponential distribution on then the reliability function of is continuous.
Details:
Recall that the assumptions mean that has a locally compact Hausdorff topology with a countable base, and that the mapping is continuous. Suppose that is a sequence in converging to . Let satisfy the stated assumptions. Then is a neighborhood of so for sufficiently large. Also, has nonempty interior so there exists a (nonempty) open neighborhonnd . By Urysohn's lemma, there exists with on and on (More specifically, pick and then separaate the closed, disjoint sets and with a continuous function.) By the continuity of multiplication, and by the continuity of , . By the bounded convergence theorem, . Since , and on , note that . Similarly, for sufficiently large. Moreover, the expected values are positive since is supported by . By the exponential property, and similarly, for sufficiently large. Therefore we have
Similarly, for sufficently large,
Hence .
Of course, and are the sets of left and right neighbors of , respectively.
In the setting of proposition [10], is continuous for every .
Details:
This follows directly from [10] since for .
Reference Measures
So far, we have not needed to refer to a reference measure on or a density function of with respect to , as we did for constant rate distributions. The following theorem bridges the gap and gives one of the main characterization of exponential distributions.
Suppose again that is a random variable in . Then has an exponential distribution on if and only if is memoryless on and has constant rate on with respect to a -finite measure that is left invariant for .
Details:
Let denote the reliability function of on . Suppose first that has an exponential distribution on . Then by [2], has a memoryless distribution. Now let be the -finite measure defined by
Then from Section 1.5, has density with respect to and hence has contant rate 1 with respect to :
Let and . By the integral version of the exponential property in and by the memoryless property,
so is left invariant on . Conversely, suppose that the distribution of is memoryless on and has constant rate on with respect to a -finite measure that is left invairant on . Thus is a density function of with respect to . Let and . Using the memoryless property and the integral version of left invariance in Section 3,
Hence has an exponential distribution.
In particular, if has an exponential distribution then must have a left-invariant measure, not surprising since the existence of an exponential distribution requires somewhat more of the semigroup than the existence of a left-invariant measure.
Suppose that is the unique left-invariant measure for up to multiplication by positive constants. Then has an expoential distribution on if and only if is memoryless and constant rate with respect to .
Suppose that is a left-invariant measure on and that is measurable. Then is the reliability function of an exponential distribution on that has constant rate with respect to if and only if
- for
Details:
Suppose first that is the reliability function of an exponential distribution for that has constant rate with respect to . By [2], the distribution is memoryless, so (a) holds. Also is a probability density function so
and hence (b) holds. Conversely, suppose that (a) and (b) hold. Let where . Then by (b), is a probability density function. Let be a random variable with density , and let and . Using (a) and the integral version of the left invariance property in Section 3,
Letting we see that is the reliability function of , and so it then follows that has an expeontnial distribution with rate .
If is the unique left invariant measure for , up to multiplication by positive constants, then [14] gives a method for finding all exponential distributions. It also follows that the memoryless property almost implies the constant rate property (and hence the full exponential property). More specifically, if is a reliability function satisfing (a) and (b) of [14], then is the probability density function of an exponential distribution with reliability function (where again, ). But in general, there may be other probability density functions with same reliability function that do not have constant rate. It may also be possible for to satisfy (a) but with . But to emphasize, we do have the following:
Suppose that is a semigroup in which the reliability function uniquely determines the underlying distribution. Then a distribution is exponential on if and only if it is memoryless.
Details:
In particular, this would apply if the associated graph is stochastic, and with the right -algebra , the reference -algebra. Compare this result with propositions [8] and [9].
Section 4.4 gives an example of a discrete, positive semigroup where the reliability function does not determine the distribution and where there are memoryless distributions that are not exponential. Conversely, the constant rate property does not imply the memoryless property. The following general example shows that mixtures of distinct exponential distributions with the same constant rate will still have the constant rate property, but not the memoryless property. The free semigroup studied in Chapter 5 gives a specific example where there are different exponential distributions with the same rate.
Suppose that is a semigroup with a fixed left-invariant measure . Suppose that and are reliability functions for distinct exponential distributions on , each having constant rate with respect to . Let and . Then is also the reliability function for a distribution with constant rate . The distributions corresponding to and are memoryless, but not the distribution corresponding to
Details:
From Section 1.5, is the reliability function for a distribution with constant rate . On the other hand,
while
So
With we have
So if for some then .
Suppose that is the reliability function of an exponential distribution on that has constant rate with respect to the left invariant measure . If and
then is the reliability function of an exponential distribution on that has rate with respect to .
Details:
Clearly for . Thus the result follows immediately from [14].
In particular, the condition in [17] holds if .
Suppose that is a positive semigroup with left invariant measure and that is a probability density function with respect to satisfying
for some measurable function . Then is the density of an exponential distribution on .
Details:
Let denote the identity element of . Letting in the equation above gives where . Let denote the reliability function of on . Then using the integral version of the left-invariance property in Section 3,
Thus the distribution has constant rate . Finally,
so the distribution is memoryless. Hence is the density of an exponential distribution by [12].
The following result is a summary of properties of the random walk associated with an exponential distribution. As usual, we start with a measurable semigroup with associated relation . We also assume that we have a fixed left-invariant reference measure , and that density functions are with respect to . Recall that denotes the left walk function of or order .
Suppose that has the exponential distribution for with constant rate and reliability function . Let be the random walk associated with and let . Then
- The -fold transition density of is given by for .
- has density function given by for .
- has density function given by for .
- The conditional distribution of given is uniform on the set of walks of length that terminate at .
Details:
These results are simply restatements of results in Section 1.5 and hold since the random walk on the semigroup is the same as the random walk on the graph by [4]. Note that the transition density satisfies for where is the density function..
Once again, a constant rate distribution is the most random
way to construct a walk in the graph in the sense of part (d).
Aging Properties
The following definition gives the abstract version of the new better than used and new worse than used properties. Once again, we have a measurable semigroup with associated relation .
Suppose that is a random variable in .
- is NBU on if for .
- is NWU on if for .
In terms of the relation , the NBU and NWU properties are, respectively
Once again, in the case of a positive semigroup, with a partial order as the relation, these properties take the more recognizable form
We will concentrate primarily on the memoryless and exponential properties in this text.
Examples and Special Cases
The Complete Reflexive Relation
Suppose that is a semigroup with left-invariant measure and whose associated relation is the complete reflexive relation , so that for every . If then the uniform distribution on (with respect to ) is exponential for .
Details:
Suppose that and let have the uniform distribution on . Since the relation associated with is complete, (equivalently for all ), the reliability function of is the constant 1: for . Hence
Here is a concrete example:
Suppose that is a topological group. Let denote the left invariant measure for (unique up to multiplication by positive constants).
- If then the uniform distribution on (with respect to ) is the unique exponential distribution for .
- If then there are no exponential distributions for .
Details:
The assumptions mean that has an LCCB topology and that the mapping is continuous on . Since is a group, the associated relation is the complete reflexive relation .
In particular, the unique exponential distribution for a finite group is the uniform distribution on (with respect to counting measure ). But once again, we see that a full group is not particularly interesting in the reliability context. Rather, a maximal positive sub-semigroup is the appropriate object of study.
Right Zero Semigroup
As usual, the right zero semigroup on a set provides an extreme example.
Suppose that is the right zero semigroup on , so that for . It follows that for and so if is a random variable in then
So every probability distribution is exponential on .
Proposition [23] is not surprising, since we also know that every -finite measure on is left invariant. The right zero semigroup is also a trivial example of a semigroup in which the exponential property does not necessarily imply the constant rate property.
Suppose again that is the right zero semigroup on and that that is a -finite reference measure on .
- If then the only distribution with constant rate for is the uniform distribution (with rate ).
- If , there are no constant rate distributions.
Details:
The corresponding relation is the complete reflexive relation so that for every . Hence the reliability function on of every distribution is the constant function 1, as noted in [21]. So this is a trivial example of a semigroup that has exponential (and hence memoryless) distributions that do not have constant rate with respect to a given left-invariant measure. We can also view this example through the lens of [14]. If then for . From our support assumption, so for . So and hence condition (b) holds if and only if is a finite measure, in which case the corresponding constant rate distribution is simply the uniform distribution on (with respect to )
On the other hand, if then there is no distribution that has constant rate with respect to . So to summarize, a distributionn on (which is necessarily exponential for ) has contant rate with respect to a measure (which is necessarily left invariant) if and only if is a finite measure, in which case the distribution is uniform with respect to . This statement is not as restrictive as it might seem. The canonical measure associated with is simply the distribution of :
and trivially, has the uniform distribution with repsect to itself:
Discrete Positive Semigroups
Corollary [13] applies to discrete positive semigroups, with counting measure as the left invariant measure.
Suppose that is a (nontrivial) discrete positive semigroup with associated partial order . Then has an exponential distribution on if and only if is memoryless on and has constant rate on , with rate constant .
Details:
From Section 3, is the unique left invariant measure for , up to multiplication by positive constants. From Section 1.5 if has constant rate for a discrete partial order graph then , and if and only if the graph is . But a discrete positive semigroup has associted partial order graph if and only if the semigroup is trivial: .
Suppose that is a discrete positive semigroup with as the set of irreducible elements and with as the associated partial order. Suppose also that has an exponential distribution on with constant rate for and with probability density function . Then also has constant rate for the covering graph , with rate
Details:
We assume of course that so that is nontrivial. Let and denote the reliability functions of for and respectively. Then since has constant rate for and is memoryless for ,
In the context of [26], suppose that is completely uniform with as the number of factorings of over when the length of a factoring is . Then has constant rate for . The rate constant is
Details:
This follows from a general result in Section 1.5
In particular, [27] applies to the free semigroup studied in Chapter 5 and the subset semigroup studied in Chapter 8.
The Standard Continuous Space
Recall that the standard continuous semigroup is with the usual Borel -algebra and with Lebesgue measure as the reference measure. The collection is also the (left and right) -algebra associated with the semigroup, and is the unique invariant measure, up to multiplication by positive constants. Moreover, is a positive semigroup with identity element is , and the corresponding partial order is the ordinary total order . Of course, this is the setting of classical reliability theory, with representing continuous time, and so is one of the main motivations for the general theory presented in this text.
Random variable is memoryless for if and only if is exponential for if and only if has constant rate for if and only if has an exponential distribution in the ordinary sense. The exponential distribution with constant rate has density function and reliability function given by
Suppose has the exponential distribution with rate parameter
- The random walk on associated with is also the random walk on associated with . The transition density given by
- For , the sequence has density defined by
- For , random variable has probability density function defined by
Of course, is the sequence of arrival times for the Poisson process with rate , and so is the ordinary gamma density function with parameters and . The standard continuous space, and related spaces, are studied in more detail in Chapter 3.
The Standard Discrete Space
Recall that the standard discrete semigroup is . As with all discrete spaces, the reference -algebra is and the reference measure is counting measure . The collection is also the -algebra associated with and is the unique invariant measure, up to multiplcation by positive constants. Moreover, is a positive semigroup with identity element is , and the corresponding partial order is the ordinary total order . This is the usual setting for probability models in discrete time.
Random variable is memoryless for if and only if is exponential for if and only if has constant rate for if and only if has a geometric distribution in the ordinary sense. The exponential distribution with constant rate for has density function and reliability function given by
Of course, can be interpreted as the number of failures before the first success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials with success probability .
Suppose has the exponential distribution on with rate
- The random walk on associated with is also the random walk on associated with . The transition density given by
- For , the sequence has density defined by
- For , random variable has probability density function defined by
Details:
The variables are assumed to be in , of course.
For , random variable is the number of failures before the th success in the Bernoulli trials sequence with success probability , and so is the ordinary negative binomial density function with parameters and . The standard discrete space, and related spaces, are studied in more detail in Chapter 4.