1. Reliability
  2. 2. Semigroups
  3. 1
  4. 2
  5. 3
  6. 4
  7. 5
  8. 6
  9. 7
  10. 8

5. Exponential and Memoryless Distributions

Basic Theory

Definitions and Characterizations

Most characterizations of the exponential distribution (and its generalizations) in the classical setting are based on the equivalence of the time-shifted distribution with the original distribution, in some sense. In the semigroup setting (and particularly in the positive semigroup setting), there are natural generalizations of these concepts. Once again we start with measurable space (S,S) and a measurable semigroup (S,) as discussed in Section 1. The relation associated with (S,) is given by xy if and only if yxS. So if X is a random variable in S then the reliability function F of X for the semigroup (S,), or equivalently the graph (S,), is given by F(x)=P(xX)=P(XxS),xS We assume that X is supported by (S,) so that F(x)>0 for xS.

Suppose that X is a random variable in S with reliability function F for (S,).

  1. X has an exponential distribution on (S,) if P(XxA)=F(x)P(XA) for xS and AS. Equivalently, the conditional distribution of x1X given XxS is the same as the distribution of X.
  2. X has a memoryless distribution on (S,) if F(xy)=F(x)F(y) for x,yS. Equivalently, the reliability function of x1X given XxS is the same as the reliability function of X.
Details

The equivalences are clear. For xS,

  1. P(x1XAXxS)=P(XxAXxS)=P(XxA)F(x),AS
  2. P(x1XySXxS)=P(XxySXxS)=P(XxyS)P(XxS)=F(xy)F(x),yS

As with the other terms from reliability that we have used, exponential distribution and memoryless distribution are used in an abstract sense. Recall that a positive measure μ on a measurable group (S,) is relatively invariant if μ(xA)=F(x)μ(A) for xS and AS where F:S[0,) is measurable (see the book by Halmos). So an exponential distribution is simply a relatively invariant probability measure, but on a semigroup rather than a group.

If X has an exponential distribution on (S,) then X has a memoryless distribution on (S,).

Details:

Let A=yS in part (a) of definition [1]. Then F(xy)=P[X(xy)S]=P[Xx(yS)]=F(x)P(XyS)=F(x)F(y),x,yS

Generalizing the relation , recall that the relation A associated with AS is defined by xAy if and only if yxA, so that y=xa for some aA. In terms of the relations associated with (S,), the exponential and memoryless properties have the form P(xAXxX)=P(XA),xS,ASP(xyXxX)=P(yX),x,yS Sepcializing further, if (S,) is a positive semigroup, so that the associated relation is a partial order , the exponential property and memoryless properties have the more familiar form P(XxAXx)=P(XA),xS,ASP(XxyXx)=P(Xy),x,yS Here are alternative formulations of the exponential and memoryless properties:

Suppose again that X is a random variable in S.

  1. X has an exponential distribution on (S,) if and only if the conditional distribution of X given XxS is the same as the distribution of xX for every xS.
  2. X has a memoryless distribution on (S,) if and only if the conditional reliability function of X given XxS is the same as the reliability function of xX for every xS.
Details:

The proofs rely on basic algebraic properties of the semigroup.

  1. Recall that for xS, the mapping AxA takes S one-to-one and onto the measurable subsets of xS. Specifically, if AS then xAS and xAxS. Conversely, if BS and BxS then B=xA where A=x1B={tS:xtB}. So let BS with BxS and let A=x1B. Then P(XBXxS)=P(XxAXxS)=P(x1XAXxS) and P(xXB)=P(Xx1B)=P(XA) So the conditional distributon of X given XxS is the same as the distribution of X if and only if the conditional distribution of x1X given XxS is the same as the distribution of X.
  2. Recall that for xS, the function txt takes S one-to-one onto xS, with inverse function yx1y. Both functions are measurable. So let yxS so that y=xt for unique t=x1yS. Let F denote the reliability function of X on (S,). Then the conditional reliability function of X given XxS at y is P(XySXxS)=P(XxtSXxS)=F(xt)F(x) The reliability function of xX at y is P(xXyS)=P(Xx1yS)=P(XtS)=F(t) The two functions are the same if and only if F(xt)=F(x)F(t) for all tS.

As a simple corollary we can answer the question of when the random walk on semigroup (S,) associated with random variable X is the same as the random walk on the graph (S,) associated with X.

Suppose again that X is a random variable in S. The random walk on the semigroup (S,) associated with X is the same as the random walk on the graph (S,) associated with X if and only if X has an exponential distribution.

Details:

Let Y=(Y1,Y2,) be a discrete-time, homogeneous Markov process in S. For both random walks, the distribution of Y1 is the same as the distribution of X. For the random walk on the graph (S,), the conditional distribution of Yn+1 given Yn=x is the same as the distribution of X given xX (that is, XxS). For the random walk on the semigroup (S,), the conditional distribution of Yn+1 given Yn=x is the same as the distribution of xX. Hence the two random walks are the same if and only if the conditional distribution of X given XxS is the same as the distribution of xX. By [3], this is the case if and only if X has an exponential distribution.

Our next result gives expected value characterizations of the exponential property.

Suppose again that X is a random variables in S with reliability function F for (S,). The following are equivalent:

  1. X has an exponential distribution on (S,)
  2. E[g(x1X)XxS]=E[g(X)] for xS and measurable g:S[0,).
  3. E[g(X)XxS]=E[g(xX)] for xS and measurable g:S[0,).
Details:

The equivalence of (a) and (b) follows from definition [1]. The equivalence of (a) and (c) follows from proposition [3].

If X has an exponential distribution on (S,) then (b) and (c) holds more generally for measurable g:SR, assuming that the expected values exist.

Exponential Points and Sets

The following two results deal with the set of points and the collection of sets satisfying the exponential property.

Suppose again that X is a random variable in S with reliability function F for (S,). Define SX={xS:P(XxA)=F(x)P(XA) for all AS} If SX then (SX,) is a complete sub-semigroup of (S,).

Details:

We first show closure. Suppose that x,ySX and AS. Then P[X(xy)A]=P[Xx(yA)]=F(x)P(XyA)=F(x)F(y)P(XA) In particular, letting A=S we have F(xy)=F(x)F(y), so substituting back we have P[X(xy)A]=F(xy)P(XA) and so xySX. Next we show completeness. Suppose that x,ySX and that xy so that y=xu for some uS. We need to show that u=x1ySX. Let AS. First, since xSX we have P[X(xu)A]=P[Xx(uA)]=F(x)P(XuA) On the other hand, since y=xuSX we have P[X(xu)A]=F(xu)P(XA) Again since xSX we have F(xu)=P[X(xu)S]=P[Xx(uS)]=F(x)P(XuS)=F(x)F(u) Combining the displayed equations we have F(x)P(XuA)=F(x)F(u)P(XA) Since F(x)>0 we have P(XuA)=F(u)P(XA), so uSX.

In the case that (S,) is a positive semigroup, note that the identity element eSX so (SX,) is a complete positive sub-semigroup. Of course in general, SX may be empty, or in the case of a positive semigroup we could have SX={e}. These cases aside, every distribution satisfies the exponential property on some complete sub-semigroup.

Suppose again that X is a random variable in S with reliability function F for (S,). Define SX={AS:P(XxA)=F(x)P(XA) for all xS} Then SX is closed under countable disjoint unions, proper differences, countable increasing unions, and countable decreasing intersections.

Details:

Recall that for xS, the mapping AxA from S into S preserves all of the set operations. Let (A1,A2,) be a sequence of disjoint sets in SX and let xS. Then (xA1,xA2,) is a disjoint sequence and P(Xxi=1Ai)=P(Xi=1xAi)=i=1P(XxAi)=i=1F(x)P(XAi)=F(x)i=1P(XAi)=F(x)P(Xi=1Ai) Hence i=1AiSX. Next let A,BSX with AB and let xS. Then xAxB and x(BA)=xBxA. Hence P[Xx(BA)]=P[X(xBxA)]=P(XxB)P(XxA)=F(x)P(XA)F(x)P(XB)=F(x)[P(XB)P(XA)]=F(x)P(XBA) Hence BASX. Of course SSX and hence the other results follow.

From [7] it follows that SX is a λ-system and hence also a monotone class (in the standard terminology of measure theory). From the monotone class theorem, it follows that if A is a collection of sets that generates the reference σ-algebra S and ASX then SX=S and hence X has an exponential distribution. For the following related result, recall that the (right) σ-algebra S0 associated with (S,) is the σ-algebra generated by the collection of right neighbor sets. That is, S0=σ(A) where A={xS:xS}.

Suppose that the collection of right neighbor sets A is closed under intersection. If random variable X in S is memoryless, then X is exponential relative to the associated σ-algebra S0.

Details:

Let F denote the reliabiltiy function of X. Since X is memoryless, P(XxyS)=F(xy)=F(x)F(y)=F(x)P(XyS),x,yS It follows that ySSX for yS and hence ASX. Since A is closed under intersection, it is a π-system, again in the standard terminology of measure theory. Since SX is a λ-system, a basic result in measure theory states that S0=σ(A)SX.

Here is the most important special case of [8].

Suppose that (S,) is a positive semigroup and that the assocated partial order is an upper semi-lattice. If random variable X in S is memoryless then X is exponential relative to the associated σ-algebra S0.

Details:

Since (S,) is an upper semi-lattice, the collection A of right neighbor sets is closed under intersetion: xSyS=(xy)S for x,yS. Hence the result follows from [8].

Of course, propositions [8] and [9] are most interesting when the assocated σ-algebra S0 is the reference σ-algebra S. In these cases, the memoryless property implies the full exponential property.

Continuity

Under mild conditions, the reliability function of an exponential distribution for a topological semigroup is continuous.

Suppose that (S,) is a topological semigroup with the property that for every xS there exists yS such that x is an interior point of {uS:uy} and {vS:yv}=yS has nonempty interior. If X has an exponential distribution on (S,) then the reliability function F of X is continuous.

Details:

Recall that the assumptions mean that S has a locally compact Hausdorff topology with a countable base, and that the mapping (x,y)xy is continuous. Suppose that (xn:nN+) is a sequence in S converging to xS. Let yxS satisfy the stated assumptions. Then {uS:uy} is a neighborhood of x so xny for n sufficiently large. Also, yS has nonempty interior so there exists a (nonempty) open neighborhonnd UyS. By Urysohn's lemma, there exists φ:S[0,1] with φ>0 on U and φ=0 on Uc (More specifically, pick uU and then separaate the closed, disjoint sets {u} and Uc with a continuous function.) By the continuity of multiplication, limnxnX=xX and by the continuity of φ, limnφ(xnX)=φ(xX). By the bounded convergence theorem, limnE[φ(xnX)]=E[φ(xX)]. Since UxS, and φ=0 on Uc, note that E[φ(X),XxS]=E[φ(X),XU]. Similarly, E[φ(X),XxnS]=E[φ(X),XU] for n sufficiently large. Moreover, the expected values are positive since X is supported by (S,). By the exponential property, E[φ(X),XxS]=F(x)E[φ(xX)] and similarly, E[φ(X),XxnS]=F(xn)E[φ(xnS)] for n sufficiently large. Therefore we have F(x)=E[φ(X),XU]E[φ(xX)] Similarly, for n sufficently large, F(xn)=E[φ(X),XU]E[φ(xnX)] Hence limnF(xn)=F(x).

Of course, {uS:uy} and {vS:yv} are the sets of left and right neighbors of yS, respectively.

In the setting of proposition [10], xP(XxA) is continuous for every AS.

Details:

This follows directly from [10] since P(XxA)=F(x)P(XA) for AS.

Reference Measures

So far, we have not needed to refer to a reference measure λ on (S,S) or a density function of X with respect to λ, as we did for constant rate distributions. The following theorem bridges the gap and gives one of the main characterization of exponential distributions.

Suppose again that X is a random variable in S. Then X has an exponential distribution on (S,) if and only if X is memoryless on (S,) and has constant rate on (S,) with respect to a σ-finite measure that is left invariant for (S,).

Details:

Let F denote the reliability function of X on (S,). Suppose first that X has an exponential distribution on (S,). Then by [2], X has a memoryless distribution. Now let μ be the σ-finite measure defined by μ(A)=E[1F(X),XA],AS Then from Section 1.5, X has density F with respect to μ and hence has contant rate 1 with respect to μ: P(XA)=AF(x)dμ(x),AS Let xS and AS. By the integral version of the exponential property in and by the memoryless property, μ(xA)=E[1F(X),XxA]=F(x)E[1F(xX),XA]=F(x)E[1F(x)F(X),XA]=E[1F(X),XA]=μ(A) so μ is left invariant on (S,). Conversely, suppose that the distribution of X is memoryless on (S,) and has constant rate α(0,) on (S,) with respect to a σ-finite measure λ that is left invairant on (S,). Thus f=αF is a density function of X with respect to λ. Let xS and AS. Using the memoryless property and the integral version of left invariance in Section 3, P(XxA)=xAαF(y)dλ(y)=AαF(xz)dλ(z)=AαF(x)F(z)dλ(z)=F(x)AαF(z)dλ(z)=F(x)P(XA) Hence X has an exponential distribution.

In particular, if (S,) has an exponential distribution then (S,) must have a left-invariant measure, not surprising since the existence of an exponential distribution requires somewhat more of the semigroup (S,) than the existence of a left-invariant measure.

Suppose that λ is the unique left-invariant measure for (S,) up to multiplication by positive constants. Then X has an expoential distribution on (S,) if and only if X is memoryless and constant rate with respect to λ.

Suppose that λ is a left-invariant measure on (S,) and that F:S(0,1] is measurable. Then F is the reliability function of an exponential distribution on (S,) that has constant rate with respect to λ if and only if

  1. F(xy)=F(x)F(y) for x,yS
  2. SF(x)dλ(x)<
Details:

Suppose first that F is the reliability function of an exponential distribution for (S,) that has constant rate α(0,) with respect to λ. By [2], the distribution is memoryless, so (a) holds. Also αF is a probability density function so SF(x)dλ(x)=1α< and hence (b) holds. Conversely, suppose that (a) and (b) hold. Let f=αF where α=1/SF(x)dλ(x). Then by (b), f is a probability density function. Let X be a random variable with density f, and let xS and AS. Using (a) and the integral version of the left invariance property in Section 3, P(XxA)=xAf(y)dλ(y)=xAαF(y)dλ(y)=AαF(xz)dλ(z)=F(x)AαF(z)dλ(z)=F(x)Af(z)dλ(z)=F(x)P(XA) Letting A=S we see that F is the reliability function of X, and so it then follows that X has an expeontnial distribution with rate α.

If λ is the unique left invariant measure for (S,), up to multiplication by positive constants, then [14] gives a method for finding all exponential distributions. It also follows that the memoryless property almost implies the constant rate property (and hence the full exponential property). More specifically, if F is a reliability function satisfing (a) and (b) of [14], then f=αF is the probability density function of an exponential distribution with reliability function F (where again, α=1/SF(x)dλ(x)). But in general, there may be other probability density functions with same reliability function F that do not have constant rate. It may also be possible for F to satisfy (a) but with SF(x)dλ(x)=. But to emphasize, we do have the following:

Suppose that (S,) is a semigroup in which the reliability function uniquely determines the underlying distribution. Then a distribution is exponential on (S,) if and only if it is memoryless.

Details:

In particular, this would apply if the associated graph (S,) is stochastic, and with the right σ-algebra S0=S, the reference σ-algebra. Compare this result with propositions [8] and [9].

Section 4.4 gives an example of a discrete, positive semigroup where the reliability function does not determine the distribution and where there are memoryless distributions that are not exponential. Conversely, the constant rate property does not imply the memoryless property. The following general example shows that mixtures of distinct exponential distributions with the same constant rate will still have the constant rate property, but not the memoryless property. The free semigroup studied in Chapter 5 gives a specific example where there are different exponential distributions with the same rate.

Suppose that (S,) is a semigroup with a fixed left-invariant measure λ. Suppose that F and G are reliability functions for distinct exponential distributions on (S,), each having constant rate α(0,) with respect to λ. Let p(0,1) and H=pF+(1p)G. Then H is also the reliability function for a distribution with constant rate α. The distributions corresponding to F and G are memoryless, but not the distribution corresponding to H

Details:

From Section 1.5, H is the reliability function for a distribution with constant rate α. On the other hand, H(xy)=pF(xy)+(1p)G(xy)=pF(x)F(y)+(1p)G(x)G(y),x,yS while H(x)H(y)=[pF(x)+(1p)G(x)][pF(y)+(1p)G(y)]=p2F(x)F(y)+p(1p)[F(x)G(y)+F(y)G(x)]+(1p)2G(x)G(y),x,yS So H(xy)H(x)H(y)=p(1p)[F(x)F(y)F(x)G(y)F(y)G(x)+G(x)G(y)],x,yS With x=y we have H(x2)H2(x)=p(1p)[F(x)G(x)]2,xS So if F(x)G(x) for some xS then H(x2)H2(x).

Suppose that F is the reliability function of an exponential distribution on (S,) that has constant rate with respect to the left invariant measure λ. If m(0,) and 1αm:=SFm(x)dλ(x)< then Fm is the reliability function of an exponential distribution on (S,) that has rate αm with respect to λ.

Details:

Clearly Fm(xy)=Fm(x)Fm(y) for x,yS. Thus the result follows immediately from [14].

In particular, the condition in [17] holds if m1.

Suppose that (S,) is a positive semigroup with left invariant measure λ and that f is a probability density function with respect to λ satisfying f(x)f(y)=G(xy),x,yS for some measurable function G:S(0,). Then f is the density of an exponential distribution on (S,).

Details:

Let e denote the identity element of (S,). Letting y=e in the equation above gives G(x)=αf(x) where α=f(e)(0,). Let F denote the reliability function of f on (S,). Then using the integral version of the left-invariance property in Section 3, F(x)=xSf(y)dλ(y)=xS1αG(y)dλ(y)=1αSG(xu)dλ(u)=1αSf(x)f(u)dλ(u)=1αf(x),xS Thus the distribution has constant rate α. Finally, F(xy)=1αf(xy)=1α2G(xy)=1α2f(x)f(y)=F(x)F(y) so the distribution is memoryless. Hence f is the density of an exponential distribution by [12].

The following result is a summary of properties of the random walk associated with an exponential distribution. As usual, we start with a measurable semigroup (S,) with associated relation . We also assume that we have a fixed left-invariant reference measure λ, and that density functions are with respect to λ. Recall that uk denotes the left walk function of (S,) or order kN+.

Suppose that X has the exponential distribution for (S,) with constant rate α(0,) and reliability function F. Let Y=(Y1,Y2,) be the random walk associated with X and let nN+. Then

  1. The n-fold transition density Pn of Y is given by Pn(x,y)=αnF(y)/F(x) for xny.
  2. (Y1,Y2,,Yn) has density function gn given by g(x1,x2,,xn)=αnF(xn) for x1x2xn.
  3. Yn has density function fn given by fn(x)=αnun1(x)F(x) for xS.
  4. The conditional distribution of (Y1,Y2,,Yn) given Yn+1=x is uniform on the set of walks of length n that terminate at xS.
Details:

These results are simply restatements of results in Section 1.5 and hold since the random walk on the semigroup (S,) is the same as the random walk on the graph (S,) by [4]. Note that the transition density P satisfies P(x,y)=f(y)/F(x)=f(x1y) for xy where f=αF is the density function..

Once again, a constant rate distribution is the most random way to construct a walk in the graph (S,) in the sense of part (d).

Aging Properties

The following definition gives the abstract version of the new better than used and new worse than used properties. Once again, we have a measurable semigroup (S,) with associated relation .

Suppose that X is a random variable in S.

  1. X is NBU on (S,) if F(xy)F(x)F(y) for x,yS.
  2. X is NWU on (S,) if F(xy)F(x)F(y) for x,yS.

In terms of the relation , the NBU and NWU properties are, respectively P(yx1XxX)P(yX),x,ySP(yx1XxX)P(yX),x,yS Once again, in the case of a positive semigroup, with a partial order as the relation, these properties take the more recognizable form P(x1XyXx)P(Xy),x,ySP(x1XyXx)P(Xy),x,yS We will concentrate primarily on the memoryless and exponential properties in this text.

Examples and Special Cases

The Complete Reflexive Relation

Suppose that (S,) is a semigroup with left-invariant measure λ and whose associated relation is the complete reflexive relation , so that xy for every x,yS. If λ(S)< then the uniform distribution on S (with respect to λ) is exponential for (S,).

Details:

Suppose that λ(S)< and let X have the uniform distribution on S. Since the relation associated with (S,) is complete, (equivalently xS=S for all xS), the reliability function F of X is the constant 1: P(XxS)=1 for xS. Hence P(XxA)=λ(xA)λ(S)=λ(A)λ(S)=P(XxS)P(XA),xS,AS

Here is a concrete example:

Suppose that (S,) is a topological group. Let λ denote the left invariant measure for (S,) (unique up to multiplication by positive constants).

  1. If λ(S)< then the uniform distribution on S (with respect to λ) is the unique exponential distribution for (S,).
  2. If λ(S)= then there are no exponential distributions for (S,).
Details:

The assumptions mean that S has an LCCB topology and that the mapping (x,y)x1y is continuous on S2. Since (S,) is a group, the associated relation is the complete reflexive relation .

In particular, the unique exponential distribution for a finite group (S,) is the uniform distribution on S (with respect to counting measure #). But once again, we see that a full group is not particularly interesting in the reliability context. Rather, a maximal positive sub-semigroup is the appropriate object of study.

Right Zero Semigroup

As usual, the right zero semigroup on a set provides an extreme example.

Suppose that (S,) is the right zero semigroup on S, so that xy=y for x,yS. It follows that xA=A for xS and AS so if X is a random variable in S then P(XxA)=P(XA)=P(XS)P(XA)=P(XxS)P(XA),xS,AS So every probability distribution is exponential on (S,).

Proposition [23] is not surprising, since we also know that every σ-finite measure on (S,) is left invariant. The right zero semigroup is also a trivial example of a semigroup in which the exponential property does not necessarily imply the constant rate property.

Suppose again that (S,) is the right zero semigroup on S and that that λ is a σ-finite reference measure on S.

  1. If λ(S)< then the only distribution with constant rate for (S,) is the uniform distribution (with rate 1/λ(S)).
  2. If λ(S)=, there are no constant rate distributions.
Details:

The corresponding relation is the complete reflexive relation so that xy for every (x,y)S2. Hence the reliability function on (S,) of every distribution is the constant function 1, as noted in [21]. So this is a trivial example of a semigroup that has exponential (and hence memoryless) distributions that do not have constant rate with respect to a given left-invariant measure. We can also view this example through the lens of [14]. If F(xy)=F(x)F(y) then F(y)=F(x)F(y) for x,yS. From our support assumption, F(y)>0 so F(x)=1 for xS. So SF(x)dλ(x)=λ(S) and hence condition (b) holds if and only if λ is a finite measure, in which case the corresponding constant rate distribution is simply the uniform distribution on S (with respect to λ) P(XA)=λ(A)λ(S),AS On the other hand, if λ(S)= then there is no distribution that has constant rate with respect to λ. So to summarize, a distributionn on S (which is necessarily exponential for (S,)) has contant rate with respect to a measure λ (which is necessarily left invariant) if and only if λ is a finite measure, in which case the distribution is uniform with respect to λ. This statement is not as restrictive as it might seem. The canonical measure associated with X is simply the distribution of X: E[1F(X);XA]=P(XA),AS and trivially, X has the uniform distribution with repsect to itself: P(XA)=P(XA)P(XS),AS

Discrete Positive Semigroups

Corollary [13] applies to discrete positive semigroups, with counting measure # as the left invariant measure.

Suppose that (S,) is a (nontrivial) discrete positive semigroup with associated partial order . Then X has an exponential distribution on (S,) if and only if X is memoryless on (S,) and has constant rate on (S,), with rate constant α(0,1).

Details:

From Section 3, # is the unique left invariant measure for (S,), up to multiplication by positive constants. From Section 1.5 if X has constant rate α for a discrete partial order graph (S,) then α(0,1], and α=1 if and only if the graph is (S,=). But a discrete positive semigroup (S,) has associted partial order graph (S,=) if and only if the semigroup is trivial: S={e}.

Suppose that (S,) is a discrete positive semigroup with I as the set of irreducible elements and with (S,) as the associated partial order. Suppose also that X has an exponential distribution on (S,) with constant rate α(0,1) for (S,) and with probability density function f. Then X also has constant rate for the covering graph (S,), with rate β:=αiIf(i)

Details:

We assume of course that I so that (S,) is nontrivial. Let F and F1 denote the reliability functions of X for (S,) and (S,) respectively. Then since X has constant rate α for (S,) and is memoryless for (S,), F1(x)=xyf(y)=iIf(xi)=iIαF(xi)=iIαF(x)F(i)=αF(x)iIF(i)=f(x)iI1αf(i)

In the context of [26], suppose that (S,) is completely uniform with cn as the number of factorings of xS over I when the length of a factoring is d(x)=nN. Then X has constant rate for (S,n). The rate constant is cnβn=cn(αiIf(i))n

Details:

This follows from a general result in Section 1.5

In particular, [27] applies to the free semigroup studied in Chapter 5 and the subset semigroup studied in Chapter 8.

The Standard Continuous Space

Recall that the standard continuous semigroup is ([0,),+) with the usual Borel σ-algebra B and with Lebesgue measure λ as the reference measure. The collection B is also the (left and right) σ-algebra associated with the semigroup, and λ is the unique invariant measure, up to multiplication by positive constants. Moreover, ([0,),+) is a positive semigroup with identity element is 0, and the corresponding partial order is the ordinary total order . Of course, this is the setting of classical reliability theory, with [0,) representing continuous time, and so is one of the main motivations for the general theory presented in this text.

Random variable X is memoryless for ([0,),+) if and only if X is exponential for ([0,),+) if and only if X has constant rate for ([0,),) if and only if X has an exponential distribution in the ordinary sense. The exponential distribution with constant rate α(0,) has density function f and reliability function F given by f(x)=αeαx,F(x)=eαx,x[0,)

Suppose X has the exponential distribution with rate parameter α(0,)

  1. The random walk Y=(Y1,Y2,) on ([0,),+) associated with X is also the random walk on ([0,),) associated with X. The transition density P given by P(x,y)=αe(yx),0xy
  2. For nN+, the sequence (Y1,Y2,,Yn) has density gn defined by gn(x1,x2,,xn)=αnexn,0x1x2xn
  3. For nN+, random variable Yn has probability density function fn defined by fn(x)=αnxn1(n1)!eαx,0x

Of course, Y is the sequence of arrival times for the Poisson process with rate α, and so fn is the ordinary gamma density function with parameters n and α. The standard continuous space, and related spaces, are studied in more detail in Chapter 3.

The Standard Discrete Space

Recall that the standard discrete semigroup is (N,+). As with all discrete spaces, the reference σ-algebra is P(N) and the reference measure is counting measure #. The collection P(N) is also the σ-algebra associated with (N,+) and # is the unique invariant measure, up to multiplcation by positive constants. Moreover, (N,+) is a positive semigroup with identity element is 0, and the corresponding partial order is the ordinary total order . This is the usual setting for probability models in discrete time.

Random variable X is memoryless for (N,+) if and only if X is exponential for (N,+) if and only if X has constant rate for (N,) if and only if X has a geometric distribution in the ordinary sense. The exponential distribution with constant rate p(0,1) for (N,+) has density function f and reliability function F given by f(x)=p(1p)x,F(x)=(1p)x,xN

Of course, X can be interpreted as the number of failures before the first success in a sequence of Bernoulli trials with success probability p.

Suppose X has the exponential distribution on (N,+) with rate p(0,1)

  1. The random walk Y=(Y1,Y2,) on (N,+) associated with X is also the random walk on (N,) associated with X. The transition density P given by P(x,y)=p(1p)yx,0xy
  2. For nN+, the sequence (Y1,Y2,,Yn) has density gn defined by gn(x1,x2,,xn)=pn(1p)xn,0x1x2xn
  3. For nN+, random variable Yn has probability density function fn defined by fn(x)=pn(n+x1x)(1p)x,0x
Details:

The variables are assumed to be in N, of course.

For nN+, random variable Yn is the number of failures before the nth success in the Bernoulli trials sequence with success probability p, and so fn is the ordinary negative binomial density function with parameters n and p. The standard discrete space, and related spaces, are studied in more detail in Chapter 4.